Joe from NYC Blog: Everything Buffalo Bills, Buffalo Sabres, and Buffalo Media: Your 2009 Buffalo Bills Preview Series

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Friday, August 28, 2009

Your 2009 Buffalo Bills: Defensive Line Preview

If you've been a fan of my blog, you will know my feelings on what the key to success for the Bills is. It's all on the defensive line. I know everyone is all about how Trent Edwards plays and whether T.O. will implode, but in order to win in the NFL you need to have a pass rush. History shows that almost ever single Super Bowl winning team had a pass rush specialist. The 49ers and Cowboys, known more for their offenses had Charles Haley. Even the Rams had Kevin Carter who was able to get double digit sacks. The Bills are a long way away from making fans forget about Bruce Smith.

The rotation to no where

I remember last year how excited I was about the Bills new look defensive line. All I heard during the offseason was how the Bills were going to rotate guys in and out, and keep the defensive tackles fresh. The Bills biggest acquisition last year was the trade for Marcus Stroud and the FA signing of Spencer Johnson. The two of them, along with John McCargo and Kyle Williams were being touted as the core of the defense. Unfortunately, McCargo was a disappointment who was benched, then traded to the Colts, only to have the deal break down because he failed the physical. McCargo ended up going IR in November and if you look up his stats for 2008, it's all zeroes across the board. Stroud played well at times, but seemed to disappear towards the second half of the year. Williams gets a lot of credit a lot of credit from fans and peers about his play, but I just don't get where that comes from because his stats don't show it. The 4 DT's combined for 6.5 sacks and no forced or recovered fumbles last season. Whether it's a rotation or playing every down, plain and simple the Bills need their DTs to make bigger plays.

The 6 and 7 million dollar men

If there are any Bills players I'm most critical of, it's Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay. Not only are both defensive ends over paid (Kelsay 6 million and Schobel 7 million a year), they fail to get the most critical aspect a DE needs to accomplish, getting sacks. Since getting his new contract 2 seasons ago, Kelsay has only 4.5 sacks. Schobel, whom if you watch his highlight reel, it seems that all of his sacks are from the defense blitzing 5 players, has been a huge disappointment. Since getting his record 7-year 50 million dollar contract, Schobel only has 7.5 sacks in two seasons. To top it off, I've heard interviews where Schobel has stated that sacks are overrated. Seriously? That's like a wide receiver saying touchdown catches don't matter. The fact that there hasn't been a bigger outrage about Schobel's statement is shocking.

Bottom line the Bills ends are overpaid and overrated, and if you've watched the games closely, whenever the Bills have only 4 players rushing the QB, you may as well forget about getting pressure. For the record, the Bills only had 24 sacks last year. I know some of you will state Schobel not being in the lineup for 11 games due to injury hurt the pass rush. But if you look at the 2007 season, when Schobel played all 16 games, the Bills only had 2 more sacks than last year. When it comes to the Bills D-Line, forget your popcorn, get your tissues ready.

Aaron Maybin factor

I know a lot of Bills fans are counting on Maybin to be the cure for the pass rush. He might be, but not this year. Maybin is a project player, who only played one full year as a starter in college. He's a bit undersized for a defensive end and extremely raw. Look for Maybin to play only on passing downs and considering how conservative the coaching staff, it wouldn't come as a shock if he doesn't get on the field during some games in order to bring him on slowly.

Part 1: Quarterback Preview
Part 2: Running Backs Preview
Part 3: Wide Receivers Preview
Part 4: O-Line Preview
Part 5: D-Line Preview
Part 6: Linebacker Preview
Part 7: Secondary Preview
Part 8: Special Teams Preview
Part 9: Coaching Preview

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Your 2009 Buffalo Bills: Offensive Line Preview

Eh, well this is my least favorite preview to do for the Bills. Lets face it, offensive line is the hardest position to scout while just being a fan. You can never tell whose fault it is if the line gives up a sack. It could be anything from a coverage sack to the QB making the wrong read. But what I do know is the Bills have a revamped (Hate using that word, because it sounds positive) offensive line. Langston Walker has been moved from right tackle to left tackle. Brad Butler has been moved from right guard to right tackle. Centers, Melvin Fowler/Duke Preston are out (woo ho!), while Geoff Hangartner is in (D'oh!). Throw in first and second rounders, Andy Levitre and Eric Wood as your guards, and that is your 2009 Buffalo Bills offensive line. Yes, I since the excitement (sarcasm).

Years gone by

It seems like ever since Will Wolford and Howard Ballard walked out of One Bills Drive in 1994, the team has been searching for an identity on the offensive line. We have endured some bad offensive lines over the years. There was Ruben Brown and John Fina on the left side during the late 90's, which wasn't a bad left side. But then the right side was a revolving door of players ( Corey Louchy and Jerry Ostroski aren't the hogs). Then early this decade it was the Mike Williams era, where we thought Williams was going to be the anchor for the line for years to come. He was an anchor alright, he could sink a ship with how fat he was.

After Williams ate himself out of the NFL, the Bills threw a ton of money at the offensive line giving unknown FA Langston Walker and Derrick Dockery 75 million dollars between the two. Not only did both players not earn any of that money, but it alienated all-pro Jason Peters to want more money. Dockery is back to Washington, while Peters out priced himself to Philly. In are rookies Wood and Levitre. Both have been described as meat and potatoes offensive lineman with nasty attitudes. That may seem great to a common Bills fan who relishes the blue collar player (sigh), but how much can we really except from two rookie lineman? I can't remember the last team who got into the playoffs with two rookies, let alone 5 new starters on the line.

The only optimism I can muster up for this strategy is the Bills are trying to go the route of using high draft picks on two lineman. Fina and Brown were probably the best pair of lineman the Bills had since 1996. Both were high draft picks and were able to be a fixture on the offensive line for years. Other than that, I'm not expecting these guys to run over the competition. It's going to be a smoke and mirrors situation with the rookies, meaning they are going to need the tight end and running backs to stay in and block.

Run the Dam Ball

No need for a clever title for this one. The Bills need to find ways to open holes for their running backs. Everyone is concerned for the o-line to protect Edwards, but that hasn't been a problem. Edwards was only sacked 23 times in 14 games last year. The names of the line mates have changed, but the problem of running the football has to change. During the Jauron era in Buffalo, the Bills have only had a running back go over a 100 yards 9 times in a game. You think getting to the century mark is a hard chore? How about trying to average over 4.1 yards per carry (Bills average over the last 2 seasons). How many times have we seen the hand off to Lynch only to see him break 2 tackles and just get back to the line of scrimmage? Too many. Edwards is still a young Quarterback, and in order to ease the pressure off him, he's going to need a running game to help him out.

Whose the man in the middle?

Ugh, the names read like a whose who of bad western movie characters: Dusty Zeigler, Jerry Ostroski, Trey Teague, Melvin Fowler, and Duke Preston. I've heard every single cliche there is to describe these guys. He's a football player, He's a thinking man's player, he plays chest. ahh!! Make it stop! Ever since Kent Hull retired, the Bills have made little effort in trying to replace him. At least they tried throwing money at the problem at other spots on the line. But when it comes to the man in the middle, It's been like casting extras for an explosion scene in a movie. Just get them in and get them out. Enter Geoff Hangartner. Who? And of course, what do they say about the guy? He scored a 47 on his wonderlic test and is an extremely intelligent player, who was a back-up in 8 games last year for Carolina. Can someone explain to me what the wonderlic does for a player?.

Will Jason Peters departure hurt the Bills?

I may be in the minority here, but I was not a fan of the Jason Peters trade. All-pro left tackles don't grow on trees and considering it took the Bills 14 years to find their heir apparent to Will Wolford, it's going to take a long time to find the next one. If the Bills were the Patriots or a team with a proven track record of finding offensive line talent, I'd be for the trade. I think a lot of fans took it too personal when it came to Peters holding out. Face Facts, when you've made 2 pro bowls and you're the 3rd least paid offensive lineman on your team, you have a legit beef. I know he could of gone about it a little better than holding out, but football is a business and it shouldn't deter a fan's opinion of a player. Enter Langston Walker. Walker has been a decent lineman for the Bills on the right side, but has had issues dealing with pass rushers with exceptional speed. Fans were happy to kick Peters out to pasture in Buffalo, but I'm betting the over/under of week 4 when fans second guess the decision.

Tight End situation

This is how bad it gets when you don't even get your own article to talk about a certain position on the team. I could make about 20 jokes about the tight end situation in Buffalo over the last 20 years. When Jay Riemersma and Pete Metzelaars are your best Tight ends in team history, you have issues. The Bills the 3 tight ends on the roster are Derek Schouman, Jason Fine, and rookie Shawn Nelson. If the Bills are as adamant about having a lot of 3 wide sets and getting their running backs involved in the passing game, it would be smart to have the best blocking tight end as your starter to help in pass protection. That eliminates Shawn Nelson whose more of a receiving tight end. Fine is the best of both worlds when it comes to blocking and receiving, while Schouman is more known for blocking. The Bills have been criticised for not involving the tight end enough in the passing game, and I don't see that changing because of the addition of Owens. Blocking should be the goals of the tight ends this year.

-joe-

Monday, August 3, 2009

Your 2009 Buffalo Bills: Wide Receiver Preview

Forget the metaphors and clever words to an opening article. I'll let the numbers speak for themselves: 1,246 catches, 18,866 yards, and 171 touchdowns. Those are the career numbers for both Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. I'm sure you can guess who has most of those numbers. You can make the case that both players have never played on a team where there is a question of who the number 1 receiving option is. It's a great problem for the Bills to have.

I've written in earlier blogs how Evans and Owens playing styles play off well with each other. Owens is the go over the middle type who can break tackles and take it to the house. T.O. has 139 career touchdowns, which is ranked number 2 for a wide outs in NFL history. Evans can beat you over the top with the deep bomb. The 6-year man has six 70-plus yard touchdown receptions – the most in the NFL since 2000. Both Wides rank number 2 and 3 in most yards in a regular season game for a receiver (Owens 283 vs the Bears in 2000 and Evans 265 vs the Texans in 2006). Both are expected to bring their "A" game this season.

The Owens effect

Say what you will about Owens, he has decimated every locker room he has been in. But the Bills didn't bring Owens in for his mouth. T.O. has a track of being able to help elevate a quarterback to the next level (Not just in fighting). With Owens: Jeff Garcia passed for 83 touchdowns from 2000-2002. Without Owens: Garcia never passed for over 20 touchdowns ever again. With Owens: Donovon Mcnabb went from 16 to 31 touchdowns in his first season in Philly. Without Owens: Mcnabb has only passed for over 20 touchdowns once. With Owens: Tony Romo went from riding the bench and not being able to date pop stars to throwing 81 touchdowns in 39 games. Without Owens: Tony Romo's future hasn't been written yet, even though breaking up with Jessica Simpson may be a sign (not sure good or bad). The Bills are hoping that Owens can bring over that quarterback development he had in his last 3 cities (and not developing team chemistry issues)

The Wides are the key
Most fans and media experts have been saying the Bills will go as far as their offensive line can take them. Lets rephrase that, The Bills O-Line will go as far as the wide receivers will take them. The Bills having been missing a second wide receiver option for over 7 years now. In order to win games you need that one two punch at wide. Take a look at the great Super Bowl Teams of the past. Steelers had Swann and Stallworth, 49ers had Rice and Taylor, Dallas had Michael Irvin and Alvin Harper (yes, he was awful after leaving Dallas). Even Both teams from last years Super Bowl had a great 1-2 punch at wide. Being loaded at wide receiver means opening up the running lanes for Lynch and Jackson, because defenses won't be able to play 8 men in the box. The best friend to a running game is having a good passing game.

The Dynamic duo needs Alfred
Just like Batman and Robin, the duo needed some help along the way. Enter Alfred, aka Josh Reed. This is where Josh Reed is going to be in a his element. He's going to be in the slot exclusively and play against the opposition's 3rd best corner. Reed seems to have found really good chemistry with Edwards. Last year Reed caught 56 passes in just 13 games. Josh won't beat you on the deep ball or break tackles like Owens and Evans, but he will be the check down guy and safety net that Edwards needs when he is in trouble. Reed has to make defenses pay for the lack of attention he will be getting. Look for Reed to be a go to guy on 3rd down for the Bills. This is also an important year for the LSU grad because he's a FA, and you know what happens when a players contract is up. Show me the money.

Odd man out
Everything is in place with Owens, Evans, and Reed as your top 3 wides. They arguably make up one of the best trios in the NFL. After those 3, it's anyone guess who will be the 4th and 5th wide outs. Roscoe Parrish is penciled in as the 4th wide on the team. If you have read my blog before, you know how I feel about Parrish. He's a great punt returner and will give you the occasional big play on offense, but that is it. For Parrish's sake, the Bills have been running a lot of wildcat offense with Parrish under center during training camp. It's not a bad idea considering some circles have deemed that Parrish needs to get the ball in his hands 150 times a year.

After Parrish, it's James Hardy and Steve Johnson battling for the 5th spot. Johnson impressed coaches last year with his play down the stretch and gives the Bills a big target. After Owens, the Bills are relatively small at wide receiver. With Owens getting a lot of attention in the red zone, look for Johnson on the other side of the field to be in a lot of 1 on 1 match-ups. James Hardy is currently on PUP list and may be still on it at the start of the season. Hardy is the future when it comes to being the teams number 2 wide. You don't just waste a 2nd round pick for a guy to become your 4th receiving option. This will end up being a mulligan year for Hardy (sorry Quinn), but the wide needs to shape up in a hurry for next year with Josh Reed and T.O. being free agents.

-Joe-

Monday, July 27, 2009

Your 2009 Buffalo Bills: Running Backs Preview

Part 2:

Running back by committee too much?

The years of having an every down back in the NFL has become like the newspaper business. Sure there's a couple of big papers left, but the business as a whole is fading. The 2 reasons why this has happened is that coaches don't want to ware out their backs, because the average shelf life of a running back is 6-7 years. The other reason is coaches want to be able to keep teams on their toes with different running styles. Thunder and Lightning, Flash and power, Earth Wind & Fire (you get the point).

The Bills have a ton of options at running back to keep their backs fresh, but when it comes to having backs with different runs styles, the Bills are lacking in that department. Marshawn Lynch, who is suspended for the first 3 games is the starter who possess a mix of strength and speed. Fred Jackson, who was discovered by Marv Levy has a very smooth running style that goes along with the field vision you would want in a back. New comer, Dominic Rhodes comes to the team after splitting carries for a number of years with the Colts and gives the Bills a receiving threat who had 45 catches last year.

Whether it's Fred Jackson, who gained 131 yards in the season finale against the Pats (lynch was hurt), you can't tell there's a drop in the running game when either guy is in there. But the issue I have is that all 3 backs have very similar style. They are between the tackles runners, with Lynch being the only back to have that home run threat.

The ideal running back situation for a running back by committee team would be something like the Chargers and Giants ran last year. The Giants had big time bruiser Brandon Jacobs, and when you got tired of trying to tackle him, you then had to deal with the speed of Derrick Ward. Chargers had LT, whose on his last legs, but when the former MVP was injured or needed a break, speedster Darren Sproles would keep defenses gasping for breath trying to chase after him. I'm not saying that I wouldn't want to have the running back situation the Bills have. But if the Bills are going to adopt the philosophy of splitting carries, you'd just rather have a distinct difference in running styles.

Here's my expectations or wish list that I would like to the see the Bills backs achieve.

1) Lets break one: The Bills were ranked in a 5 way tie for 21st in the NFL with 9 runs of 20 yards or more and only had 1 rush of 40+ yards. In case you were wondering Carolina led the NFL with 24 runs of 20 + yards. If any back on the team is going to break the 20 yards plus mark, it has to be Lynch. He has that home run ability but the Bills seem to always want to run Lynch between the tackles, which is harder for a back to break long runs. I'd like the Bills to incorporate at least 2-3 toss sweeps a game, so Lynch could have a full head of steam when running. That philosophy should give the Bills a much needed home run threat.

2) Can we get a screen pass for God sake! Even though the duo of Jackson and Lynch combined for 84 catches last year, the backs average a pedestrian 7.5 yards a catch. That's what happens when the only catches your backs make are check downs. The Bills need to start designing some screen plays to get their backs more room in the open field. The Eagles and Chargers have the best designed screen passes in football and Turk Schonert should start watching their film to get some ideas. Besides the screen pass adding more YAC to your running backs, it's also the o-line's best friend to slowing down a ferocious pass rush.

3) The time is now for Lynch: Lynch's first two years in the NFL has been mired with some ups and downs. I'm not talking about on the field either folks. When Lynch first arrived to Buffalo, he was a breath of fresh air for fans who were sick and tired of Willis McGahee's issues with the nightlife in Buffalo. Lynch came to Buffalo sporting a great golden smile (because it was made of gold) and a great sense of humor (Remember the Dave & Busters video). Since walking into Dave & Busters the 3rd year man's popularity has suffered. Last offseason it was the hit and run accident in downtown Buffalo and then this offseason it was the possession of a non registered fire arm. The cure for getting Lynch back in the graces of the Bills fans is on the field. Lynch needs to go from the 1,100 yard rusher he has been his first 2 years to a 1,500 yard back. You don't waste top 15 picks on running backs just to split carries. This year's going to be tuff for Lynch to eclipse that number, since he's suspended the first 3 games. But this is now or never for the back to go from average to elite running back status. He's arguably the 3rd best weapon on the offensive side of the ball, which means teams won't pay much attention to him like they did the first 2 years of his career. To quote Harvey Dent from Batman, "it's always darkest before the Dawn," and Lynch needs to take that quote and take it to the house.

-Joe-

Your 2009 Buffalo Bills Preview Series

Part 1: Quarterback Preview

Part 2: Running Backs Preview

Part 3: Wide Receivers Preview

Part 4: O-Line Preview

Part 5: D-Line Preview

Part 6: Linebacker Preview

Part 7: Secondary Preview

Part 8: Special Teams Preview

Part 9: Coaching Preview

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Your 2009 Buffalo Bills: Quarterback Preview

Part 1:

Trent Edwards on the hot seat

It was the 2007 NFL Draft and the Bills had just used their first two picks on Marshawn Lynch and Paul Posluszny. Next up was the Bills 92nd pick in the draft (3rd round) and Marv Levy the Bills GM at the time remembered having a conversation with the late Bill Walsh. Walsh had told Levy that Stanford quarterback Trent Edwards was a sure fire NFL player with great skills who had struggled in college due to the Cardinals being such a terrible a team.

Edwards was being touted as the 3rd best quarterback in the draft behind JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. Edwards was projected to go in the 2nd round, but was picked ahead of John Beck, Drew Stanton, and Kevin Kolb. The knock on Edwards was that he took such a beating in college that injuries were a big concern, along with a perceived lack of arm strength. Levy took what Walsh said to heart, and of course he would considering Walsh knew a thing or two about quarterbacks (Montana and Young). The Bills used the 92nd pick on Edwards even though JP Losman had come off his best year (ehh if you call 19td's good). Losman of course lost his job the falling season and Edwards took over.

Fast forward to training camp 2009 and Edwards is in the same position he was coming out of college. Edwards had played his first 2 years in the NFL with subpar offensive talent around him. But unlike college, Edwards finally has a supporting cast around him. Enter Terrell Owens and that completely changes the dynamic of the offense and also puts added pressure on Edwards. There's no more excuses that the bills don't have a legit number 2 receiving option. On top of the pressure of having more weapons at his disposal, Edwards now has to battle the number 3. As in year 3 being when most coaches expect the quarterback to come into his own as a pro.

Edwards career numbers are as followed: 18tds and 18int's, along with a 61% completion rate and a quarterback rating of 79.1%. Edwards starting record in the NFL is 12-10. Average numbers all the way around for the Stanford product. Edwards isn't just fighting his quarterback numbers but also his injury stigma. Going back to college, Edwards has missed a portion of the regular seasons an eye popping 5 out of the 6 years due to injuries. I'm not ready to call him Rob Johnson yet, but he's on par with Jim McMahon with the injury bug. Edwards only has 1 year left on his contract after this season, and if he wants to get a fat Matt Cassel type deal, he's going to have to stay healthy and put up better then average numbers.

Everything is in place for Edwards, he's been in the same system for the last 3 years and finally has play makers at the wide reciever position spot. Edwards is going to hit the high completion percentage that he has always done since being named the starter in 2007, but I'm looking for Edwards to get his yards per completion up. The Bills were dead last in the NFL in attempting passes of 40 yards or more. Adding T.O. to the mix should make that number go up, along with single coverage Evans should be getting because of Owens. To take a famous speech from crook John Rigas and remix it, "Edwards now has the tools to finish the job." The question is if the carpenter has enough experience to get it done.

-Joe-

"McFaddens Hall of Fame, be there"